Second Science Symposium
January 18 - 21, 2005

Progress toward the Development of a Model to Quantify the Efficacy of Detection Strategies for Phytophthora ramorum

Yashika Forrester; 4700 River Road Unit 117, Riverdale, MD 20737; Betsy Randall-Schadel, USDA APHIS PPQ Center for Plant Health Science and Technology, Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory, 1730 Varsity Drive, Suite 300, Raleigh, NC 27606; Allan Hogue, David Oryang, and Robert McDowell, USDA APHIS Policy and Program Development Risk Analysis Systems, 4700 River Road Unit 117, Riverdale, MD 20737; (301)734-8015,;

The emergence of Sudden Oak Death and the continuing appearance of new incidences have prompted a coordinated federal, state and local effort to manage the risk of spreading Phytophthora ramorum through nursery stock within the USA. The wide host range and the commonality of symptoms with other pathogens and environmental influences complicate detection of this pathogen. A mathematical model is under development to evaluate the effectiveness of different strategies to detect P. ramorum. The model uses event sequence diagram analysis to compare selected strategies. An event sequence diagram sequentially illustrates individual events that can occur in a system along with their subsequent probabilities. Aggregated expert judgment data is used to supplement empirical data. The advantages and disadvantages of the novel use of this model will be highlighted.

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Coordinated by:
USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station
University of California Integrated Hardwood Range Management Program,
Center for Forestry, Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources, and
California Oak Mortality Task Force

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