Second Science Symposium
January 18 - 21, 2005

Climate Host Mapping of Phytophthora ramorum Causal Agent of Sudden Oak Death

Glenn Fowler and Roger Magarey, USDA-APHIS-PPQ-CPHST-PERAL,1730 Varsity Drive, Suite 300, Raleigh, NC 27606; (919) 855-7511;

Phytophthora ramorum infection, was modeled using the NAPPFAST system for North America. Parameters used to model P. ramorum infection were: leaf wetness, minimum temperature, optimum temperature and maximum temperature over a specified number of accumulated days. The model was used to create risk maps showing the percentage of favorable years based on 10 or 30 year climate data. The risk maps were compared with historical P. ramorum observations from California. The majority of the historical observations were located in the >80% favorable zone using 10-year climate data and >60% favorable zone using 30-year climate data. Climate risk areas for P. ramorum were then overlaid with known host distributions to generate a composite risk map. Risk areas for P. ramorum were then demarcated based on the degree of climate match and quantity of host present. The resulting maps are designed to improve the efficacy and economy of survey and detection activities for P. ramorum by federal, state and local regulatory agencies. Work is in progress to create international climate risk maps using a ZedX Inc, daily data set that is temporally and spatially interpolated from the Intergovermental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) data set.

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Coordinated by:
USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station
University of California Integrated Hardwood Range Management Program,
Center for Forestry, Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources, and
California Oak Mortality Task Force

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